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Head Down, Hold Tight

Posted on August 14, 2020 by ScottSoriano

This from the introduction to Michael Cohen’s forthcoming book. As a bookseller who specialized in presidential lit, I have to say that the library on Trump will be the sleaziest and strangest ever.

“From golden showers in a sex club in Vegas, to tax fraud, to deals with corrupt officials from the former Soviet Union, to catch and kill conspiracies to silence Trump’s clandestine lovers, I wasn’t just a witness to the president’s rise—I was an active and eager participant.

To folks who wonder what good books like this do: For history, they are really important. Politically, they also have a use. Yes, books like Cohen’s will not change the votes of the Trump Cult, but it will eat into whatever soft support Trump has. Those votes might not go to Biden. Instead, these folks might just sit it out. A Did Not Vote in a swing state from a potential Trump voter is as good as a vote for Biden. It also helps harden soft support for Biden, giving those folks another reason to show up.

Sometimes people get frustrated or wonder why campaigns get a bit more politically moderate and/or in full attack mode towards the end of a campaign. It’s because this close to the end, the bulk of the votes have been decided. Campaigns shift to making sure that casual voters know who their candidates are, while working on are picking up soft supporters. These are not habitual voters who pay a lot of attention to politics, which is why they tend to be politically mushy and open to salacious stories and attack.

I don’t doubt that the Biden campaign will start to sound more stodgy, especially if they see the contest move from Pennsylvania and Michigan to Arizona and Texas. Remember, it is not just the presidency that the Dems are after. They want the Senate and the House. They cannot pick up Arizona or even knock off McConnell and Graham pushing the Green New Deal or police reform. That doesn’t play in South Carolina or Kentucky.

I urge you not to read into what is happening “on the campaign trail,” especially as a predictor that change can’t happen. To expect change to happen in a political campaigns is as unrealistic as thinking that driving is done on a car dealership’s showroom floor. Right now we are being sold candidates. Our curency is our vote. Voting is important, but so is what we do to follow up. That said, I urge you to divorce your emotions from the campaign and put away the crystal balls, and, you know what is coming, get to work while we anticipate a week of Trump’s Blond Lady at the Podium having to answer questions about golden showers.

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